theorem variance_centered_form (P x : Fin J → ℝ)
(hP_sum : ∑ j, P j = 1) :
let μ := ∑ j, x j * P j
(∑ j, x j ^ 2 * P j) - μ ^ 2 =
∑ j, P j * (x j - μ) ^ 2 := by
simp only
set μ := ∑ j, x j * P j
have expand : ∀ j, P j * (x j - μ) ^ 2 =
x j ^ 2 * P j - 2 * μ * (x j * P j) + μ ^ 2 * P j := by
intro j; ring
simp_rw [expand, Finset.sum_add_distrib, Finset.sum_sub_distrib,
← Finset.mul_sum, hP_sum]
ring### The Variance-Response Identity