Crisis Duration
~8 years for semiconductors (d=2), ~11 years generic (d=1). Duration scales as O(1/sqrt(epsilon)).
Impact Score
Score Reasoning
- Importance
- Quantitative prediction of crisis length from structural parameters. Directly policy-relevant: 8 years for semiconductors, 11 years generic. Central result of Paper 3.
- Novelty
- New theorem: crisis duration formula with delayed-transition correction term. The geometric dimension correction alpha_n = d_n * alpha_0 is original. Quantitative crisis predictions are rare in economics.
- Quality
- Clear exposition of duration formula, delayed-transition effect, geometric dimension correction. Strong quantitative content with specific predictions.