The Fundamental Triad
Three observables---spectral width , overinvestment amplitude , and cycle duration ---are linked by a single latent variable . Eliminating it yields zero-parameter predictions. 12 of 18 tests CONSISTENT.
Impact Score
Score Reasoning
- Importance
- Core spine result linking three independently observable quantities through a single latent variable, generating zero-parameter falsifiable predictions. Central to Paper 5's empirical program.
- Novelty
- The elimination framework (reducing M observables to M-1 constraints via a single latent variable) is a genuinely new identification strategy for business-cycle analysis. The zero-parameter prediction A = 1 - log(r*)/log(W) connecting spectral width to recession depth has no precedent.
- Quality
- Comprehensive article with clear exposition of elimination formulas, co-monotonicity table, 15 Lean theorems enumerated, full 18-test empirical scorecard with honest discussion of failures (R1j wrong sign, gain function confound), and 5 future investigation directions. Well cross-linked.