Dispersion Indicator
CPI dispersion leads output at every turning point; median 12 months, r = +0.37.
Impact Score
Score Reasoning
- Importance
- Useful empirical method derived from CES theory. CPI dispersion leading output by 12 months is a practical prediction. 4 inbound links.
- Novelty
- New connection between CES dispersion and economic turning points. The 12-month lead and r=+0.37 correlation provide a novel leading indicator grounded in theory.
- Quality
- Well-structured article at 5135 chars with clear empirical results and connection to early-warning theory.