Early Warning Signals
Dispersion turns before output: median 12-month lead in CPI data.
Impact Score
Score Reasoning
- Importance
- Important supporting result with direct policy relevance: dispersion leads output by 12 months. Connects the information shadow theorem to observable early warning indicators.
- Novelty
- The information shadow (Fisher info = 0 at symmetry) is a new theorem explaining why crises are unforecastable from time series. Cross-sectional dispersion as leading indicator is a new structural prediction.
- Quality
- Clear exposition of information shadow concept, well-structured connection from theory to empirical dispersion indicators. Strong practical relevance.