Great Moderation Discrimination
CES framework discriminates between policy, structure, and luck explanations of the 1984-2007 volatility reduction using damping cancellation as tiebreaker.
Impact Score
Score Reasoning
- Importance
- Important application of damping cancellation to a 30-year macroeconomic debate. Provides unique discrimination power (IRF area invariance) that no other framework offers, but is an application rather than a core spine result.
- Novelty
- The identification strategy is genuinely novel: using an exact algebraic cancellation theorem to discriminate between policy, structure, and luck explanations. The ZLB natural experiment and speed-area independence test are original test designs.
- Quality
- Excellent article with discrimination table mapping each explanation to CES predictions, honest 14-test scorecard (6C/8A/0I), detailed discussion of D3-8 endogeneity, QE tool classification table, and 6 future investigation directions. Strong cross-linking.